OKYM7W22 STROMBERG

The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century.In addition to unforeseen factors such as natural disasters and epidemics,international political factors will increasingly interfere with the global industrial chain.Professor Choi Byung-il of Ewha Womans University in South Korea believes that the global industrial chain of North America and the European Union is based on the WTO and trade agreements between”like-minded”countries,while the global industrial chain of East Asia operates only on the basis of the WTO,and the institutional heterogeneity is compared.Large,unstable in the”ideology-technology-institution”linkage framework.

This is because,in the information and communication technology(ICT)revolution,China acts as the”final assembly factory”and the United States acts as the”largest consumer”,and has significant influence on both business and defense,and ideology is more likely to become a”disruptive”global The role of the value chain.In fact,as the share of global GDP declines,the United States will more and more frequently use ideological lines to adopt containment policies against emerging countries,which will have a major impact on the global industrial chain.

当今世界处于百年未有之大变局，除了自然灾害、疫情等无法预见的因素外，国际政治因素对全球产业链的干扰将越发频繁。韩国梨花女子大学崔炳日教授认为，北美和欧盟的全球产业链是以WTO和“志同道合”国家之间贸易协定为基础，而东亚的全球产业链仅在WTO基础上运作，制度异质性比较大，在“意识形态-技术-制度”联系框架中具有不稳定性。

这是因为，在信息和通信技术（ICT）革命中，中国扮演“最终组装工厂”，美国扮演“最大消费者”，而且对商业和国防都具有重大影响，意识形态更可能成为“破坏”全球价值链的角色。实际上，随着在全球GDP占比的下降，美国将越来越频繁地以意识形态划线对新兴国家采取遏制政策，对全球产业链带来重大冲击。