Political interference from individual developed countries such as the United States may slow down the development of the global industrial chain,but it is unlikely to shake the overall trend.A large number of empirical studies have shown that this kind of interference is”killing a thousand enemies and self-destructing eight hundred”.
Thirdly,economic globalization is in a necessary and cyclical adjustment stage,which is expected.After decades of development,this round of economic globalization has brought professional benefits,but also produced a series of negative effects,mainly manifested in the failure to share the benefits of globalization reasonably,causing dissatisfaction among the people at the bottom.However,globalization has not stopped,and the scale of world trade declined significantly after the 2008 financial crisis,but has since recovered,and in 2018 has basically reached the level at its peak in 2008.Therefore,some scholars believe that the current situation is more in line with the concept of”slow globalization”rather than the concept of”deglobalization”.
美国等个别发达国家的政治干扰,可能减缓全球产业链发展进程,但不可能动摇总体趋势。大量的实证研究表明,这种干扰是“杀敌一千,自损八百”。
再次,经济全球化正处于必要的、周期性的调整阶段,在预想之中。这轮经济全球化经过几十年的发展,在带来专业化收益的同时,也产生一系列负面影响,主要表现为全球化利益没有合理共享,引起底层民众的不满。但是,全球化并没有停止,世界贸易规模在2008年金融危机后显著下降,但此后恢复,2018年基本上达到了2008年顶峰时的水平(见图2)。因此,一些学者认为,目前的情况更符合“缓慢全球化”的概念,而不是“去全球化”的概念。
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